National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis

NCEAS Working Groups

Predicting extinction: The dynamics of salmon populations at low densities

Project Description

We propose to combine meta-analysis, the analysis of a large number of data sets to determine the probability of different population parameters, with Bayesian risk analysis to provide a methodology for making predictions about extinction and other risks of low density populations. A NCEAS working group would meet twice to apply these methods to a case study of coho salmon in California and Oregon using existing meta-analytic data sets, and to explore the potential for developing similar data sets for other taxonomic groups.

Principal Investigator(s)

Ray Hilborn

Project Dates

completed

Participants

Louis W. Botsford
University of California, Davis
Mike Bradford
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Daniel Goodman
Montana State University
Ray Hilborn
University of Washington
Jeffrey A. Hutchings
Dalhousie University
E Conrad Lamon
Louisiana State University
Martin Liermann
University of Washington
Steven T. Lindley
NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Ransom A. Myers
Dalhousie University
Anthony R. E. Sinclair
University of British Columbia
Paul Spencer
NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center
Thomas Wainwright
NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Products

  1. Journal Article / 2003

    The variability among populations of coho salmon in the maximum reproductive rate and depensation

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  2. Journal Article / 2000

    Reference points for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) harvest rates and escapement goals based on freshwater production

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  3. Report or White Paper / 1998

    Report of the first working group on Predicting Extinction

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  4. Data Set / 2007

    Coho salmon

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  5. Data Set / 2007

    Coho salmon online data from Myers' stock recruitment database

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