Falling Fish Stocks Will First Impact Health of Developing Nations

With the world’s population forecasted to reach 10 million by 2050, global food systems will be under pressure to provide ever more food. A team of researchers, including NCEAS Center Associate Benjamin Halpern, presented their findings on the impact of dwindling global fish stocks on micronutrient availability and global human health in Nature.

Fish are essential sources of highly bioavailable micronutrients. With declining fish stocks, however, there is concern that significant portions of the population will not have access to these nutrients. The team calculates that if fisheries continue to shrink as projected, 845 million people (11% of the global population) will be vulnerable to zinc, iron, or Vitamin A deficiencies.

Their data paint a stark picture: 46 of 49 nations that rely on fish as a mainstay of their diet are located in the developing world. Global catch is falling as a result of destructive fishing practices, industrial pollution, climate change, and coastal development -- and fisheries in the developing world are most at risk. By 2050, climate change alone could reduce catch in the tropics by 30% and average biomass by 20%.

While aquaculture could help mitigate the situation, the authors warn against seeing farmed fish as a panacea.

The authors' recommendations include: boosting investment in less intensive and domestically oriented aquaculture of cheap and nutritious species; farming species lower in the food chain to reduce dependence on wild-caught fish meal; and allocating coastal land and water resource rights to small-scale aquaculture.

To derive their numbers, the team utilized two data sources. First, the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) database enabled researchers to establish each nation’s level of nutrient vulnerability. Second, the Sea Around Us database provided them with the most accurate estimate-to-date of annual marine fisheries catch for every nation between 1950 and 2010. These records confirm that fish catch has been falling by 1.22 million tonnes (roughly 1%) per year since 1996.

Fall in Fish Catch Threatens Human Health
C.D. Golden, E. H. Allison, W. W. L. Cheung, M. M. Dey, B.S. Halpern, D.J. McCauley, M. Smith, B. Vaitla, D. Zeller & S. S. Myers. Nature, 15 June 2016, Vol. 534, Issue 7607, DOI: 10.1038/534317a