NCEAS Working Groups
Global climate change and adaptation of conservation priorities
Project Description
This working group will develop methods for the production of future climate projections at biologically-relevant scales (30m - 5km). Methods explored will include expert-driven and Baysian probability frameworks. The group will include expertise in taking information from multiple GCMs and multiple climatologists to make informed estimates of local changes in temperature and precipitation. The methods developed will allow use of information from GCMs and RCMs where they are in agreement, but use expert opinion where the climate models clearly do not capture local conditions well (e.g., fire weather, fog, snowpack). This method will be relevant to local changes in individual species and viable for individual management areas, such as individual parks and conservation areas.
Principal Investigator(s)
M. Rebecca Shaw
Project Dates
Start: October 1, 2005
End: June 30, 2007
completed
Participants
- Daniel Cayan
- University of California, San Diego
- Frank W. Davis
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Curtis Deutsch
- University of California, Los Angeles
- John Dingman
- University of California, Berkeley
- Timothy P. Duane
- University of California, Berkeley
- Alan Flint
- US Geological Survey (USGS)
- Lorraine Flint
- US Geological Survey (USGS)
- Janet Franklin
- San Diego State University
- Patrick Gonzalez
- The Nature Conservancy
- Alex Hall
- University of California, Los Angeles
- Lee Hannah
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Lara J. Hansen
- World Wildlife Fund
- Maki Ikegami
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Linda Joyce
- USDA Forest Service
- Susan Julius
- US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- Peter Kareiva
- The Nature Conservancy
- Kirk Klausmeyer
- The Nature Conservancy
- Joshua J. Lawler
- Oregon State University
- Jim Lutz
- University of Washington
- Jason B. MacKenzie
- The Nature Conservancy
- Ed Maurer
- Santa Clara University
- Ian McCullough
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Sean McKnight
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Joel C. Michaelsen
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Peter Miller
- University of California, Berkeley
- Max A. Moritz
- University of California, Berkeley
- Malcolm North
- University of California, Davis
- Jonathan T. Overpeck
- University of Arizona
- Sam Pearsall
- The Nature Conservancy
- Chris Potter
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- Chris Pyke
- US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- Christophe Randin
- University of Colorado, Boulder
- Kelly Redmond
- Desert Research Institute
- Helen M. Regan
- University of California, Riverside
- Patrick Roehrdanz
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Terry Root
- Stanford University
- Earl Saxon
- The Nature Conservancy
- Steve Schneider
- Stanford University
- M. Rebecca Shaw
- The Nature Conservancy
- Ayn Shlisky
- The Nature Conservancy
- Peter Slaughter
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Bill Stanley
- The Nature Conservancy
- Nate Stephenson
- US Geological Survey (USGS)
- Lynn Sweet
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Alexandra D. Syphard
- San Diego State University
- Karyn Tabor
- Conservation International
- Christina Tague
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Timothy H. Tear
- The Nature Conservancy
- Anthony Westerling
- University of California, Merced
- Tom Wigley
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
- Robert Wilkinson
- University of California, Santa Barbara
Products
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Presentations / 2010
Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine-scale do climate models need to be?
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Presentations / 2012
Modeling species distributions to support conservation planning
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Presentations / 2013
Connecting microclimates to plant species' range dynamics in a changing climate
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Presentations / 2013
From microclimates to macroecology: modeling plant species range dynamics in a changing climate
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Presentations / 2014
Changing windows of opportunity for tree seedling establishment in California's mountain landscapes
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Presentations / 2014
From microclimates to macroecology: Modeling plant species range shifts in a changing climate
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Presentations / 2015
Changing windows of opportunity for tree seedling establishment under 21st Century climate change
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Presentations / 2015
Changing windows of opportunity for tree seedling establishment under 21st Century climate change
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Presentations / 2016
From microenvironments to macroecology: Modeling tree species range shifts in a changing climate
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Journal Article / 2016
Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains
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Journal Article / 2013
Modeling plant species distributions under futureclimates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?
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Journal Article / 2010
Resource management in a changing and uncertain climate
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Journal Article / 2016
High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes
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Journal Article / 2014
Bioclimatic velocity: the pace of species exposure to climate change
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Journal Article / 2016
Averaged 30-year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment
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Journal Article / 2016
California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change