Morpho: Identifying root causes of thiamine deficiency complex in global aquatic ecosystems

Thiamine Deficiency Complex (TDC) is a global threat to the stability and persistence of wildlife populations. Despite substantial research efforts over the past three decades, the ultimate drivers leading to TDC remain unknown to science. TDC research has historically focused on mitigating TDC-related fisheries losses and identified parental consumption of forage fishes with thiamine degrading enzymes as the leading cause of TDC. Recently, evidence has emerged that aquatic ecosystem-level shifts in the microbial production of thiamine at the base of the food web may be an important driver of TDC. We propose to use the resources provided by the NCEAS Morpho Initiative to develop a comprehensive conceptual model integrating these competing paradigms. We will bring together an international team of TDC experts with specialties ranging from microbiology to ocean fisheries to: (1) create a Bayesian network model to better understand the causal web leading to TDC; (2) develop our conceptual model into a prospective paper; and (3) assemble a publicly accessible and interactive TDC database as a ShinyApp for researchers and fisheries professionals. We aspire to leverage the expert knowledge of our team and decades of research to finally connect the dots and elucidate the causes of TDC in fishes.