Predicting population level effects of toxicants

Exposure to sub-lethal concentrations of many toxic compounds in the environment affects the rates of assimilation and utilization of food by individual organisms. These effects may lead to large changes in the dynamics of a population, and to the structure of communities. Dynamic energy budget (DEB) models have had considerable success in describing the effects of toxicants on individual performance, notably in describing changes in rates of growth and reproduction. This proposal has two components:

• Synthesis of DEB theory for effects of contaminants on individual organisms.
• Development of DEB-based theory for population dynamics, including synthesis of three different modeling approaches currently applied to practical problems in conservation ecology, environmental impact assessment, and water quality management.

The first will be the responsibility of R.M. Nisbet during a one-year sabbatical at NCEAS. The second will involve a working group of theorists and experimentalists. Methodology will be evaluated through modeling marine microcosms, before widening the group's activity to natural and managed populations.