Synthesis of elk influences on the Northern Yellowstone ecosystem and role of research in national park policy setting

This is a proposal for support during calendar 1998 to synthesize ecological evidence on effects of elk herbivory on the Yellowstone National Park (YNP), 100,000-ha northern-range ecosystem, and to assess use of that evidence in setting management policy in the Park; and more broadly to explore procedures for, and effective use of science in, setting policies in the National Park System. The effort would have 4 major components:

1. Analysis by the Center Fellow of the entire 123-year data base on (a) the northern herd's population trajectory from before Park establishment (1872) to present; (b) trends in northern-range vegetation composition and production, sympatric herbivores, and hydrology; and (c) correlation between the 2 trends. Measurements inside Park exclosures from the 1930s to present, and outside Park boundaries, would serve as quasi-controls.
2. The Center Fellow would compare results of the synthesis with previous use of the data base, and inferences therefrom, for supporting park-management policy.

These 2 components would be followed by a September 1998 Working Group at NCEAS of scientists on all sides of the issue to critique and debate the synthesis.

3. An October 1998 Working Group of public-land-law and public-administration theorists would be convened at NCEAS to explore protocols for policy setting in national parks that are legally and politically appropriate in the context of the emerging paradigm for policy setting on other public lands, and the unique public-land status of national parks.
4. A November 1998 Working Group of theorists on the role of science in policy would be convened at NCEAS to explore the sociological influences affecting inferences from scientific evidence on the elk effects.

The final product would be a book synthesizing the results of all 4 components, or one publication each on the ecological synthesis and the policy aspects.