Understanding changes in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska Ecosystem: Analysis of Past Dynamics to Improve Prediction of Future Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Change

How will the structure, the productivity, and the dynamics of the coastal Gulf of Alaska ecosystem respond to anticipated changes in environmental conditions and human disturbances within coastal waters? Our proposed working group will take an integrated two-pronged approach to examining the past 25-years of data from the Gulf of Alaska for insights into the present state and future changes in the region, both anthropogenic and natural. Statistical analysis of observed states and changes among physical and biological ecosystem components will highlight sensitivities to changes in the physical environment across trophic levels. Model analyses will characterize sensitivities to environmental variability and estimate the effects of future oceanographic changes and management and policies on both ecological and human dimensions. Experts in social-ecological systems will guide research and activities towards the examination of the consequences of ecosystem change to human needs and activities.